Connect with us

Politics

Who's Going to Win in November?

Published

on

In trying to simplify the state of the race and move past the statistical dead-heat that the national polls show the race in, I have done a little more electoral map analysis today.  I have taken advantage of RealClearPolitics’ delightful “create your own map” tool.  I put North Carolina and Missouri safely in the Romney ledger, but put New Mexico and Michigan safely in the Obama ledger.  I am putting Minnesota in the Obama ledger too, but a Pawlenty-as-VP pick could change that.  The reality is that some polls clearly show Michigan very tight as well; I am just trying to narrow it down.
So with every state assigned except NV, CO, OH, WI, FL, VA, IA, PA and NH, we have the electoral math at 217 to Obama and 211 to Romney in the race towards 270.
Pennsylvania is a state that just elected Pat Toomey as Senator two years ago.  Obama leads in polls there, but if voter turnout in the national embarassment that is the city of Philadelphia ends up being low, Romney has a very good chance to take the western 2/3 of the state which is not on welfare.  It is not the lowest hanging fruit for Romney of the eight battleground states I am highlighting, but it is possible.
Wisconsin is a “leans Obama” state in the polls too, and the best thing I can say is “I don’t believe it”.  I just don’t.  Nothing in that state’s recent voting outcomes tells me Obama will win this state.  Furthermore, polls show enthusiasm amongst college students is very low (and Madison is Obama”s hope in WI).  But we shall see …
NV is a state that Steve Wynn delivered to Harry Reid in 2010 and I believe he will deliver to Mitt Romney in 2012.  The other man who controls NV, Sheldon Adelson, also finds Barack Obama to be appallingly frightening (Wynn because of domestic policy; Adelson because of foreign policy).  The NV Senate race is shaping up nicely for the Republican too.  The reality is that the Democrats have mastered voter fraud in Nevada, but I think this one is winnable for Romney.
So the road to the White House looks like this in my opinion for Romney: The 206 he has now, plus Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Iowa – this gets him to 272 and the White House even with a loss in Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Michigan.  Of course, a win for Romney in one or more of those states just makes things much more comfortable for Romney, and I think it could happen in at least WI and NV (and I wouldn’t mind seeing PA, MN, and/or MI in play as well).  This is the optimistic approach.  The concern is that a sweep of FL, OH, and VA may be tough.  I simply see their 2010 voting results and the possibility of either a Portman (OH) or Rubio (FL) pick boding very well for Romney …  But there is little margin for error for either candidate, and note that if Romney wins OH, VA, and FL, but loses IA, he loses the election.  It is that tight (at present).
Ultimately I can’t see how the eventual winner ends up taking much more than 285 electoral votes, but of course that assumes that one candidate does not break out after their convention.
Big picture, I still believe that the poll bothering me the most is not Ohio or Wisconsin, but rather the Intrade odds showing people betting money on Obama winning.  However, all of these polls should be re-visited after Romney makes his VP pick and after the convention.  The economy, voter enthusiasm, the 2010 results, and a plethora of raw empirical data still leaves me optimistic that Barack Obama will be a one-term President.
David L. Bahnsen, CFP®, works as a Senior Vice President in the private client group of one of the premier Wall Street firms in the country where he provides financial planning and investment management services to individuals and families. For more information about David Bahnsen, go to www.DavidBahnsen.com

Don't forget to Like The Washington Sentinel on Facebook and Twitter, and visit our friends at The Republican Legion.

Become an insider!

Sign up for the free Washington Sentinel email newsletter, and we'll make sure to keep you in the loop.

Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Politics

DOJ Labels NYC, Portland, Seattle ‘Anarchist Jurisdictions,’ Targets Federal Funds

Published

on

By

DOJ Labels NYC, Portland, Seattle ‘Anarchist Jurisdictions,’ Targets Federal Funds

The Justice Department declared New York City, Portland, and Seattle as “anarchist jurisdictions” that can have federal funding ripped away for failing to clamp down on violence according to its criteria. 

“When state and local leaders impede their own law enforcement officers and agencies from doing their jobs, it endangers innocent citizens who deserve to be protected, including those who are trying to peacefully assemble and protest,” Barr said in a statement set to be released Monday. “We cannot allow federal tax dollars to be wasted when the safety of the citizenry hangs in the balance. It is my hope that the cities identified by the Department of Justice today will reverse course and become serious about performing the basic function of government and start protecting their own citizens.”

NY Post:

New York City was among three cities labeled “anarchist jurisdictions” by the Justice Department on Sunday and targeted to lose federal money for failing to control protesters and defunding cops, The Post has learned.

Portland, Ore., and Seattle, Wash., were the other two cities on the list, which was approved by US Attorney General William Barr.

[…]

White House budget director Russ Vought is set to issue guidance to federal agencies on withdrawing funds from the cities in less than two weeks.

The list of cities eligible for defunding will be updated periodically, the feds have said.

It is not yet clear what funds are likely to be cut, but the amount of money siphoned from New York City could be massive, given the Big Apple gets about $7 billion in annual federal aid.  More

Mayor Bill de Blasio responds:

The whiny bastards will sue, but who cares? But if you read Amendment XIV, Section 3 this has the potential to go way beyond simply withholding funds, those who’ve aided the sedition financially or otherwise face some spectacular problems in the near future should he decide to go this route and the left is leaving him little choice in the matter.

Continue Reading

Politics

Fox News’ Harris Faulkner Addresses Cutting Off Newt When He Talked About Soros

Published

on

By

Fox News' Harris Faulkner Addresses Cutting Off Newt When He Talked About Soros

On Fox News, former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich was met with an awkward silence as he brought up the role of how billionaire left-wing financier George Soros is funding the election of left-wing prosecutors in many cities over the last several years.

“Look, the number one problem in almost all these cities is George Soros-elected, left-wing, anti-police, pro-criminal district attorneys who refuse to keep people locked up. Just yesterday they put somebody back on the streets who’s wanted for two different murders in New York City.”

As TWS reported here Fox News cut Newt off. Here’s Fox News Host Harris Faulkner’s explanation and it’s lacking.

Continue Reading

Politics

Fox News Silences Newt Gingrich From Explaining How George Soros Has Corrupted District Attorney Elections

Published

on

By

On Fox News, former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich was met with an awkward silence as he brought up the role of how billionaire left-wing financier George Soros is funding the election of left-wing prosecutors in many cities over the last several years.

His comments prompted the show’s co-hosts to confront him on why he was invoking the liberal philanthropist, which was their way of essentially trying to get him to stop talking about it.

However, Gingrich did not let up.

He argued that the rise in crime in many Democrat-run cities is partly the result of the election of many left-wing district attorneys who had received financial assistance from Soros. He said:

“Look, the number one problem in almost all these cities is George Soros-elected, left-wing, anti-police, pro-criminal district attorneys who refuse to keep people locked up. Just yesterday they put somebody back on the streets who’s wanted for two different murders in New York City.”

He continued: “You cannot solve this problem — and both [Kamala] Harris and [Joe] Biden have talked very proudly out what they call ‘progressive district attorneys’. Progressive district attorneys are anti-police, pro-criminal, and overwhelmingly elected with George Soros’s money.

“And they’re a major cause of the violence we’re seeing because they keep putting the violent criminals back on the street,” Gingrich said.

“I’m not sure we need to bring George Soros into this,” Francis replied.

“He paid for it,” Gingrich, who was obviously taken aback by the interruption. “I mean, why can’t we discuss that fact that millions of dollars….”.

“No he didn’t,” Harf interjected. “I agree with Melissa. George Soros doesn’t need to be a part of this conversation.”

“Okay, so it’s verboten,” Gingrich said, using the German word for “forbidden.”

Continue Reading

Politics

1,666 Uncounted Ballots From NJ Primary Found In A Bin

Hey, mail-in ballots, what could go wrong?

Published

on

By

1,666 Uncounted Ballots From NJ Primary Found In A Bin

Officials have counted 1,666 ballots from New Jersey’s July primary that were found last week in a “mislabeled” bin. The ballots are from Sussex County were placed in a “secure area” at the county election office and were not discovered until Thursday.

It continues to astonish me that ballots, even when kept in “secured areas” go missing and then “magically appear” months later. Leftists are prepping US citizens to accept ballots found after the election.

NBC:

Officials have counted more than 1,600 ballots from New Jersey’s July primary that were found last week in a “mislabeled” bin.

The 1,666 ballots from Sussex County were placed in a “secure area” at the county election office and were not discovered until Thursday, the New Jersey Herald reported.

After notifying the state of the error, the remaining votes were counted Saturday, said Board of Elections Administrator Marge McCabe. She said the newly tallied votes “did not change the outcome” of any races.

“The Board of Elections is confident that all ballots received have been processed and the security of all the ballots has remained in place,” McCabe said. More

This is exactly why Democrats want mail-in voting, and this is why Hillary Clinton said that Joe Biden shouldn’t concede under any circumstances. Whether or not those 1666 votes would have changed it, it means that there is legitimate cause to question the validity of the election.

President Trump will win by a huge landslide on election night because most pro-Trump voters will go to the polls since they don’t trust Democrats. Democrats will then try to argue that they have some unknowable number of mail-in votes that overturn the election. Nobody will believe them.

Continue Reading

Politics

TREASON? Gen. Mattis Considered Taking ‘Collective Action’ To Stop Trump

Published

on

James “Mad Dog” Mattis has never seen a war he won’t support. This put him squarely in conflict with President Donald Trump during his time as Defense Secretary, eventually leading to his departure from the position in early 2019. 

Now it is becoming clear that his departure was far less smooth than previously known, and could have ended violently, according to journalist Bob Woodward.

To preface, much of Bob Woodward’s new book, “Rage” is almost certainly fake news to smear the President. Woodward is known for launching these kinds of hit jobs to keep himself relevant. But there is a lot of evidence backing the claims made about Mattis.

In the book, Woodward claims that then-General Mattis often expressed his concerns about President Trump, believing he isn’t fit for the job he holds. In particular, he was known to air these grievances to former Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats.

Woodward cites one particular occasion, occurring during the heat of the 2017 conflict with North Korea. Woodward states that Mattis was at the Washington National Cathedral in prayer when he confided in Coats, suggesting that they may need to take action against Trump, saying:

“There may come a time when we have to take collective action” since Trump is “dangerous. He’s unfit.”

Considering both Mattis and Coats are among the highest ranking military officials, it is difficult not to interpret that as a threat of a military coup, as many on Twitter are stating.

Woodward is not the first to accuse Mattis of attempting to take down President Trump during his time in as Defense Secretary.

In 2019, Big League Politics published evidence of Mattis planning to challenge President Trump in the 2020 election during his final months in his position. Their report includes pictures of detailed notes taken by a political consultant who was approached about joining the team to launch the presidential bid.

So there is evidence showing that Mattis was not below working to undermine President Trump while working under him.

 

 

 

Continue Reading

Politics

15 Armed USPIS Agents from New York Sent to Arrest Triple Amputee War Hero Brian Kolfage

It’s a political hit.

Published

on

By

15 Armed USPIS Agents from New York Sent to Arrest Triple Amputee War Hero Brian Kolfage

Another US Government Abuse of Power! Two weeks ago war hero and triple amputee Brian Kolfage was arrested along with former Trump Chief Strategist Steve Bannon and two others for charges related to building a wall on the Southern Border. –TGP

Fifteen (15) members from the New York United States Postal Inspection Service (USPIS) showed up on Brian Kolfage’s doorstep to arrest him on the August 20, 2020. It took 15 USPIS officers to arrest a triple amputee war hero in a wheelchair!

The USPIS agents looked through his children’s rooms.

On the morning of August 20th at least five cars, all with New York state plates, showed up outside war hero Brian Kolfage’s house.  Out came 15 USPIS agents, armed and ready.  The agents no doubt thought through their actions on the long drive from New York to Florida.  They came prepared with guns, gloves and masks so COVID wouldn’t slow them down.

Kolfage states:

I’ve taken direct hits from mortars fighting for my country overseas, now I’m taking mortars from a politically corrupted and weaponized judicial system who has made it their #1 goal to target all Trump associates. With reckless regard for the constitution they have set out on a mission to destroy people’s lives by intimidation through a weaponized mainstream media platform that regurgitates and tries defendants in the court of public opinion before facts are even known. This is not the type of freedom I raised my right hand to defend, this is totalitarianism to take political prisoners.

They are coming after us for one reason, we embarrassed them, we proved that Americans wanted border security. ‘We the people’ then built the wall and cut off major human smuggling routes. We showed Americans that we can accomplish the “impossible” with a little good old fashioned hard work. Everything we accomplished went against the tainted beliefs of these socialists from NY who are after us. They want the permanent political class to stay in power. And in order to achieve that they need globalism and open borders to keep the power on their side.

When the facts come out over the next few months they are going to have to drop this case; it’s that’s simple, this case is 100% TAINTED by political motivations. That’s why they timed it to the eve of the Republican National Convention, just as Steve Bannon was beginning to advise the Trump Campaign again.

You can donate to Brian’s fund to cover his legal expenses here.

No wonder the USPS can’t turn a profit. Arresting one person probably cost them $100,000 when they could have just called him and asked him to come in.

Continue Reading

Politics

New York Gov. Cuomo: Trump Had ‘Better Have An Army’ To Protect Him If He Comes To NYC

Sounds like a threat.

Published

on

By

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo: “He better have an army if he thinks he’s gonna walk down the street in New York. New Yorkers don’t want to have anything to do with him.”

Liberals just never learn. Don’t challenge the president because he enjoys it. 

NY Post:

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Wednesday all but threatened President Trump’s safety if he returns to New York City in a rant responding to an exclusive story by The Post that Trump is looking to pull federal funds from “lawless” cities including New York.

Cuomo called an emergency press briefing within a half-hour on Wednesday night to tear into Trump for the order, which cites New York’s rising murder rate and defunding of the NYPD.

“He better have an army if he thinks he’s gonna walk down the street in New York. New Yorkers don’t want to have anything to do with him,” the Democrat said, all but threatening the commander-in-chief.

But Cuomo — who, like Trump, hails from Queens — wasn’t done. “He can’t have enough bodyguards to walk through New York City, people don’t want to have anything to do with him.” More

So think about this for a minute. Gov. Andrew Cuomo says the POTUS would need an army to walk the streets of NY. What a rousing endorsement of his and De Blasio’s policies and there effect in New York.

Continue Reading

Latest Articles

Become an insider


Best of the Month

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!
 
Send this to a friend